About

 

The Long Seventeenth Century (1640-1815) is the period that includes the French Revolution (1789) and the aftermath. In another blog (here), I cover the Long Sixteenth Century (1450-1640) that covers the age of Henry VIII, Thomas Cromwell and the English Reformation. And, the period from the French Revolution  to World War I (the Long Nineteenth Century) I cover in yet another blog.

What is unique about these blogs, I believe, is that I use state space statistical models to describe societal development during each period--and on into the 20th Century. For more information about the models, see the Boiler Plate here. To run the models, submit the code here.

Links

• French Revolution 
• Marie Antoinette
• Affair of the Diamond Necklace
• The Empress (TV Series)
• The 17th Century
• The Long 18th Century
• Marx and the French Revolution

Notes

World-system theory (WST) has developed a new language for analyzing the historical social, economic and political development of societies based on concepts from General Systems Theory (GST). The basic GST concept is that all systems are organized in hierarchies. Applying this concept to the world system, WST find nation states organized into core, semi-peripheral and peripheral countries that create an inter-regional and transnational division of labor.

The premise about hierarcical organization, the analysis of world-system history and the adoption of other GST concepts has led to a number of conjectures. For example, the system works to the benefit of the core countries that brings in the Marxist theory of Capitalist Exploitation. Or, the role of long-swings and business cycles in creating historical conjunctures where the system changes its orientation. Or, technological changes originate in the core and are used to further exploit the peripheral countries. Or, hierarchical imbalances generate world-system conflict that reaches a peak during system conjunctures.

WST has, understandably, not pursued every insight from GST. There is more to be done, particularly in the area of quantitative systems analysis and model building. My interest in this blog is to investigate world-system conjectures using quantitative models based on GST. In another blog, I am developing Causal Macrosystems using directed graphs (structural equation models) and state-space theory, quantitative tools drawn from GST. In yet another blog (Economic Bubble Machine), I am looking at economic cycles. This blog will use the insights from those blogs to develop empirical systems models of core, semi-peripheral and peripheral countries.

The kinds of questions I will be asking of these models are:

1. Is there a difference between the structure and time-series behavior of nation states based on their position in the world system?
2. Are models for failed states different form other peripheral country models?
3. Are technological parameters and technological change different based on world-system position?
4. How are effects transmitted, if at all, from core to semi-peripheral and peripheral countries?
5. Is there a difference in how systems react to economic crises based on world-system position?
6. etc.

I have been working with GST macro models since the mid-1970's. My first macro-model was published in my dissertation Instability and Late Nineteenth Century German Development. My goal is to put together the things that I have learned in the last forty years for the next generation of model builders.